Practical handicapping and informed wagering
intro
Handicapping is a pursuit of deductive reasoning designed to arrive at a functional conclusion. The process is more like one may utilize in poker where finesse is required. By sharp contrast it is very much unlike random slots play.
The objective
Finding a workable approach to interrupting and evaluating a horse’s current form found within the context of its past performance lines is a good starting point. This process is like conducting a job interview for assessment purposes. Once a good perspective of a horse’s merits has been determined, the next important step is to draw comparisons to others in the race. To have value a horse’s merits must be relatively better than an opponent’s best characteristics. A horse who is quick but not relatively fast compared to his rivals is significantly disadvantaged. A horse that is good but not relatively good compared to its opponents in the field loses all value.
a visiual approach
One appealing approach is art form based much like an impressionist painting without limitations. It is visually oriented which allows for more freedom of expression, the utilization of empirical knowledge and finally the employment of intuition. Interrupting the body language, physicality and athleticism of horses in workouts, the saddling area, walking ring and on the track prerace is paramount in this disciple. Those who have pets at home will enjoy an advantage here as they are usually alert to any developing signs of improving or deteriorating body language with their four legged friends. Watching live races keenly and also reviewing race replays on various platforms to qualify a horse’s performance is most useful. Bundling these visual clues will help one arrive at a useful conclusion. Federico Tesio, the great Italian horse breeder, owner and genius trainer responsible for the early roots of Northern Dancer through his own horse Nearco reminds us that the traits used by a horse for winning are lungs, heart and character. To paraphrase highly successful bloodstock agent Donato Lanni- if one can properly define a horse’s spirit then its desire to win is uncovered. Surely a visually based art form is the best approach for these types of discovery and opens a path to uncover more longshots.
a numerical approach
For others the best approach is a numerically based one that provides much appreciated structure. Expressing a horse’s performance with a number simplifies the task and eliminates much of the esoteric guess work of the first approach. The good news for advocates of this process is that numbers are readily available. The long time Beyer speed ratings assembled by handicapping icon Andy Beyer and his extensive team at tracks throughout North America are featured in the Daily Racing Form both in the printed newspaper version and in the online editions. The higher the Beyer Rating the better the performance. Products for purchase from Bloodstock Research Information Services (brisnet.com) a company based in Kentucky include performance ratings and pedigree statistics which allow them to compete successfully in this market space. The Len Ragozin Sheets out of New York and the Jerry Brown Thoro-graph numbers out of California are often utilized by more sophisticated types willing to pay the significantly higher fee for purchase of these useful numbers. By contrast the lower based numbers of the Ragozin and Thoro-graph sheets indicate superior performance. These tools give a clear indication of numerical superiority and the slogging is already done for you. This approach could be construed as looking at the National Football League standings summary and yet the top ranked team doesn’t always defeat a team rated below it. There is more work to be done. With numerical superiority comes the built in trap of the method pointing to horses with big recent performances and therefore the risk of diminished odds.
projecting
Both approaches, visually based and numerically based or a combination of the two have their identifiable core strengths. The next vital step for both approaches is key to increasing their effectiveness and that is using the Projection Method. This works by taking the artful concepts or raw numbers and cleverly imagining what type of performance comes next: a similar effort, improvement or regression. For visually engaged players the answer may be obvious that a more effective trip is likely and a better than previous result is expected. Factoring in maturity for an upcoming race will produce better prerace body language and likely an improved result. For the numerically inclined a red flag may appear after a horse has radically improved its performance rating. The chances are heightened that a downturn in performance is likely as happened to 2024 Kentucky Derby favorite, Fierceness. Perhaps if a horse has improved steadily then more improvement is likely projected in the upcoming race and must be factored into the raw numbers. For the numerically inclined an examination of form cycles can be helpful. The Projection Method is highly useful and with practice can become second nature.
secondary factors
A series of secondary factors also need to be entertained. These may include examining expanded jockey statistics, trainer statistics, who is hot, or jockey and trainer combination statistics and post position trends. Sometimes for a visually based player a switch to a rider perceived to be patient will assist a horse in developing a more useful style for the upcoming race. A horse with a dull opener may be considered a wakeup prospect second time out at a longer distance especially if that fits with its pedigree profile. Perhaps a surface change to turf will lead to an improved performance especially if the breeding supports it or the trainer’s stats point to that as a positive. A horse with an inferior number may improve sufficiently when moving away from a wide post position to a more productive starting stall. Even a cursory examination of running styles and pace velocity potential is useful as one could discover a selection to be assisted or compromised. The quick view pace summaries included in the Thoro-graph product are useful to this end. A horse player may pick up a valued piece of information from a broadcaster or writer that helps with the final decision. Selection services with accompanying betting strategies for big day events such as the Breeders’ Cup as provided by Jim Mazur’s Progressive Handicapping company can be useful in seeing the final picture more clearly. Secondary factors can play a useful role in either process.
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Continued- Practical Handicapping and Inform Wagering
the difference between handicapping and wagering
For successful race play one needs, first, an effective approach for ferreting out likely prospects and then a workable betting strategy. The two pursuits have little in common and are typically separated by a wide chasm. The first is deductive in nature while the second is psychologically and emotionally charged. Most horse players learn the game by spending 75% of their time devoted to developing handicapping techniques and as little as 25% to refining their wagering profile. Many times this flawed energy split follows horseplayers throughout their careers.
wagering overview
Knowing yourself and your tolerance for risk is a good first step when entering the betting arena. Most already have a profile built through banking experiences, investing activities and the purchasing of lottery tickets or not. Investing conservatively in perhaps GICs or more adventurously in Crypto Currencies will reveal your level of open-mindedness for race play. Wagering goals are also an important part of the landscape. If profits are mandatory there will be added pressure. Breaking even and having some fun is an alternate goal with far less pressure. Mastering the psychology of losing is vital because winning profiles in the game will necessarily include an intrinsic ability to handle losses. Jim Coleman, one of racing’s great publicity resources, understood personalities well and pointed several decades ago to a mercurial rising owner in the game and correctly pin pointed that he wouldn’t be able to succeed long term in the game because he didn’t know how to lose.
wagering tools
A cool even temperament is preferred for race play. Significant mood swings after big wins or tormenting losses will have an adverse impact on the player. Having a general awareness of the various probabilities that the game presents will help minimize confusion and add equilibrium. A keen sense of your specific handicapping results will assist you in successfully profiling what type of wagers to make. If your results highlight that you can readily find race winners in your top three selections your wagers should center on linear bets where races-in-a-row are targeted such a Doubles, Win Threes, Pick Fours-Fives-Sixes. If your handicapping results show a propensity for clear race overviews then perpendicular wagering should be your focus such as Exactas, Trifectas, Superfectas and Jackpot Hi-5s.
race horse racing vs sports betting
Sports betting tends to simplify the process as it generally involves just two teams unless multiple team parlays are preferred. Given the basic setting one either wins or loses. Inventive in- game wagers have made the exercise more interesting. What racing provides is unique. There exists in racing the potential for huge payoffs in the Exotic pools. Racing Associations often reward the biggest volume players with percentage rebates. Here, breaking even will result in a profit when the rebates are factored in.
horseracing's current impediment
The game of horse racing currently finds itself in the grips of an unnecessary crisis created by Racing Associations attempting to increase betting churn and as a result, increase profits for themselves. This has unfairly pitted the large majority of players against high volume players and syndicates currently preferred by the tracks. The latter group utilizes sophisticated Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) techniques. Racing Associations often cater to these favored groups by granting them access to the highly valuable pool particulars in the final moments of play and in some cases sole access to the wagering platform in the vital final seconds after the majority of bettors have been locked out by the tracks. The forceful and negative impact of these actions for the majority of players is the belated discovery of reduced payoffs on winning combinations. This frustrating development has chased many longtime players from the game. Money originating from this favored group now accounts for upwards of 30% of the pool. Sports Betting does not permit such belated fluctuations in the odds.
the wrap up
The continuing fascination of solving racing’s mesmerizing puzzles by art form or numerically based solutions and giving one access to potentially big payoffs through the use of an emotionally balanced wagering strategy remains a rewarding pursuit for many despite the present day hurdles.
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